What businesses can expect in 2026

As businesses look towards the future, the narrative is shifting from reacting to asymmetric shocks to building the resilience needed to ride them out, much like the global economy, which has proven surprisingly robust in the face of disruption. Disruption seems to be here to stay but businesses are becoming better at recalibrating their operations to adapt to the turmoil.

We spoke with several leading experts from ANZ, including economists, geopolitical strategists and transaction banking leaders, to look ahead through the uncertainty. The consensus is we are entering a period defined by geopolitical contests and economic decorrelation. This is offset by an ongoing maturation of technology from ideas to real-world implementation thanks to enhanced regulatory clarity and network interoperability.

Geopolitics: Tension between deal-making and decoupling

The outlook for 2026 remains complex but the nature of the risk is evolving, according to Cameron Mitchell, Head of Geopolitical Risk, ANZ. While less predictable geopolitical events will continue to surprise, the dominant theme will be the back and forth between two opposing forces – the desire to make deals and the structural drive to decouple – involving the United States and China.

Disagreements between the two superpowers on a range of topics will continue to complicate the established world order even as leaders from both geographies seek to stabilise relations through negotiations. "Just working out that balance in 2026 is going to be crucial," Mitchell says, adding that this dynamic creates a new framework for viewing the world not just through the prism of geographies and economic blocs but as "contests and corridors."

Contests: Frictions all around the world, including the trade war between China and the US, as well as more serious conflict in Europe, the middle east and south America.

Corridors: These are channels of trade, such as investment flows and supply chains, which are being redrawn by shifting political alliances.

As global commerce becomes fragmented, businesses linked to strategically important sectors are increasingly operating within specific and narrow channels of commerce connecting allied nations. This changes the definition of supply chain diversification where it’s no longer just about having suppliers everywhere, notes Mitchell.

"It’s about having depth within safe zones, which is suppliers in the right corridors," he explains, adding: "You need to make sure that if one of those shuts off because of a geopolitical development you have ready access to another."

Macroeconomics: Resilience in a "decorrelated" world

The global economic engine, however, continues to hum along, proving resilient to the adverse effects of tariffs and various geopolitical disruptions.

"Tariffs in 2025 didn't destroy demand, they simply rearranged it. The main impact of tariffs will be to reallocate rather than to remove activity," says Richard Yetsenga, Group Chief Economist, ANZ. "Our forecast for global growth in 2026 is 3.3%, which is incidentally the same rate as 2025 and 2024. So, steady as she goes, which, in the context of some of the challenges around us, should be seen as a really strong outcome."

At the same time, the interest rate landscape tells a story of divergence. While China faces structural deflationary forces pushing for easing, and Japan deals with inflationary pressures requiring tightening, other economies like the US and UK are somewhere in between. "The one word I'd use to describe interest rates is ‘de-correlated’," Yetsenga says.

For investors and treasurers, this means there is no single, global playbook anymore. Strategies that worked in a uniform rate environment may need tailoring for specific markets in 2026. Yet there is cause for cautious optimism, especially in Asia.

"Economies have shown a great ability to redirect production and trade in ways that allow them to continue to be part of the global trading system," notes Yetsenga, adding: "Asia remains very resilient in the face of a world which is more volatile."

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Australia has picked up and fundamentals remain solid while China's economy has produced a remarkable performance despite structural challenges. India remains the world’s fastest-growing large economy, having ended the year in very strong shape. Additionally, strong private balance sheets in most markets provide a firm foundation for yet another solid year in 2026, Yetsenga notes.

Overall, the global economy’s robustness suggests it has learned to absorb shocks rather than break under them.

Technology in finance: Prioritising use cases

Meanwhile, the tech revolution continues to transform the finance industry, particularly transaction banking, as products and services from atomic settlements and smart contracts to fraud mitigation gradually evolve into powerful business tools.

We are also seeing a maturing of the digital assets space, says Hari Janakiraman, Head of Industry and Innovation, Transaction Banking at ANZ, pointing to 2026 as a year where regulatory clarity – especially in markets like the US and Australia – is set to accelerate institutional adoption. "With the US supporting private-sector participation, for instance, fintechs are now considering issuing their own digital tokens to expedite the movement of funds," he says.

The core theme for 2026 will be the scaling up of real-time payments and its expansion into cross-border payments, driven by better infrastructure, greater interoperability aided by industry bodies like SWIFT and active efforts by regulators, the experts agree.

Speed however is not the only advantage of real-time payments, notes Philippa Campbell, ANZ’s Head of Transaction Banking for Australia, stressing that their true value lies in the information that travels with the money. "The real benefits are the rich data payloads that go with real-time payments."

This data in turn allows for further streamlining the movement of funds. For instance, in 2026, this evolution will help satisfy a new regulatory mandate in Australia: with the introduction of Payday Super, employers are required to pay superannuation contributions at the same time as wages instead of on a quarterly basis, and ensure contributions reach employees’ super funds within seven business days of payday.

This is key because it isn't just a speed challenge, it’s a data-matching challenge to ensure funds reach the right employees’ accounts and on time, points out Campbell, adding that this regulatory reform will likely act as a catalyst for businesses to upgrade their payment infrastructure, a move that will eventually pay dividends in efficiency well beyond compliance.

The AI frontier: Constantly evolving

Elsewhere in the tech space, artificial intelligence (AI) continues to command attention while the conversation shifts from "What is it?" to "How do we use it?" and "How do we pay for it?", as corporates and their treasuries move past the novelty of new tech tools to embrace practical applications.

As AI use ramps up, the coming months could see a wider adoption of agentic AI and a shift towards more machine-to-machine interactions, especially when it comes to analysing and extracting information from text and data.

"It's nascent but you have key players in the industry who are starting to look at what agentic commerce means for them. It can also be used by treasurers to optimise their operations by automating various decision-making processes and could change the way our institutional customers receive payments for their products and services," notes Janakiraman.

So, a future where AI agents negotiate and move funds between banks to optimise liquidity may not be too far away. Furthermore, the growth of tokenisation, especially when integrated with Generative AI-enabled treasury management systems, will enable seamless, on-demand access to banking services, as well as instantaneous, transparent and low-cost transactions.

"We have already seen a move from proof of concepts and pilots to real-world implementation. As regulatory frameworks solidify, we will see more institutional adoption of digital assets and currencies," Janakiraman says. "Greater network interoperability will further help digital tokens move reliably across different systems with standardised rules, allowing for better risk management and liquidity."

Yet another key area where AI and agentic commerce can make a difference is in the growing area of hyper-personalisation, notes Jackie Kallman, Head of Payments Industry and Engagement at ANZ. "There's definitely a great opportunity to enhance customer experience using agentic AI and commerce. Because it allows us to not just customise a user interface but actually make the whole experience individualised," she says.

All of this will further support the growth of embedded finance, according to Campbell, as consumers and businesses get easy access to banking and payment services through non-banking channels, such as corporate ERP systems or consumer apps. "We'll see more of that," she says.

Resilience: The best defence against risk

Amidst these opportunities, the threat landscape is evolving with cyber threats dominating. The rise of sophisticated - sometimes state-sponsored - bad actors means businesses must be vigilant and cyber security must be treated as a team sport involving banks, customers and tech providers, all working together to erect the appropriate defences, notes Kallman.

Meanwhile, digital assets like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) remain a work-in-progress as policymakers and central banks deliberate over their implications while working to improve traditional payment rails to support real-time liquidity, thus precluding any large-scale issuances of CBDCs in 2026, agree Janakiraman and Kallman.

On the AI front, while the tech’s versatility is increasingly becoming clear, Yetsenga points to the flood of capital pouring into the technology and valuations pricing in perfection for what is still a relatively nascent tool. This could potentially trigger a setback in the AI investment thesis and a correction in capital markets if returns don’t materialise in time, he cautions.

In the physical realm, supply chain disruptions remain a "known unknown," according to Mitchell. For instance, while the Red Sea situation has settled into a new normal, risks have shifted to the Black Sea, he notes, where insurance premiums have tripled due to strikes on shadow fleets.

All of these factors reinforce the need for back-up plans designed by stress-testing the entire ecosystem against a variety of scenarios, staying agile and expecting the unexpected to build the capacity to pivot as insurance against future crises and build operational resilience, the experts agree.

"Top of the list for priorities in 2026 must be resilience and preparedness for various challenges and threats that could arise through the changing technology and geopolitical landscapes," says Kallman.

Furthermore, Kallman adds, businesses and their treasuries must invest in managing the change that’s coming on various fronts, including technology, regulations, corporate governance and geopolitics, all of which can help them capitalise on growth opportunities and contribute to sustainable growth over the long term.

While challenges abound and the list of friction points is long, corporates should not lose sight of the global economy’s resilience and growth potential. If they prepare, prioritise and partner correctly, 2026 could turn out to be a year of solid, steady progress.