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The last few years in the Australian economy have been shaped by major changes in economic data. For businesses looking for stability, it appears 2026 will be a break from all that.
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The labour market is likely to remain steady, and inflation is not expected at this stage to run much further away from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target band.
Unlike in previous years, ANZ Research expects interest rate adjustments to be smaller in the near term, including no changes for the remainder of 2026, becoming more about refinement rather than big cycles where basis points shift in their hundreds.
When it comes to economic growth, Australia’s gross domestic product is expected to increase at around potential —not catching up from a slow period, nor cooling down from an overheated one.
In our view
ANZ is the leading institutional bank in the region, with experts in close to 30 markets in the Asia Pacific and around the globe. Our new series, In our view, aims to bring that expertise directly to you, providing the ideas you need to succeed in your area of business in an era of uncertainty and opportunity.
Over the coming weeks, we’ll be sharing forward-looking insights into themes such as the macroeconomy, digitisation, and shifting realities of trade, helping businesses position themselves to take advantage of these trends.
Be sure to follow ANZ Institutional on LinkedIn to stay up to date.
Adelaide Timbrell is a Senior Economist at ANZ
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