How Aus, China trade will change

Australia’s trading relationship with China will change as Asia’s largest economy makes the transition to a new era, according to ANZ Chief Economist, Greater China, Raymond Yeung — but there will still be opportunity aplenty for both partners.

Speaking to ANZ Institutional Insights on video, Yeung said the era of heavy resources trade was nearing an end, but Australia could take advantage of China’s more selective future investment.

“We have to see China differently,” he said. “The old days of the big commodity boom are gone.”

That means a change in — but not removal of — Chinese demand in Australian resources, Yeung said. But the new opportunity will go beyond that.

“China is a big exporter of financial capital,” Yeung said. “How can we tap the liquidity advantage from Chinese investors is another area we need to keep an eye on.”

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Implication

China’s transition toward a less infrastructure-driven economy will have some implication for certain global export sectors, Yeung said. For Australia, this means resources in particular.

“But at the same time, if China is moving towards more a tech-driven economy, the supply chain does require some inputs like critical minerals,” he said. “That is something China will need [to] import from Australia.”

It’s by no means the end of the iron ore trade, Yeung said, as China continues to develop. And the high reputation of Australian minerals will leave it in good stead for the remaining demand.

“Australian natural resources in terms of the quality level, is very competitive," he said.

Decade

The China-Australia free-trade deal (CHAFTA)’s tenth anniversary is in December. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, China was Australia’s top partner for goods and services exports and imports in 2024, at $A196 billion and $A115.6 billion, respectively.

The trading relationship came into increased focus earlier in 2025 when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese led a delegation to China that attended, among several events, the eighth Australia-China CEO roundtable. ANZ’s Simon Ireland was among the attendees.

Yeung said while geopolitical issues would always be a consideration in trade, CHAFTA provided a “backbone” for the two economies to work from.

“It's good to have a dialogue, a face-to-face discussion between the two, in terms of economic ties,” he said.