skip to log on skip to main content
VoiceOver users please use the tab key when navigating expanded menus
Article related to:


AFTF 2022: doom & gloom misplaced

ANZ Insights

2022-10-20 00:00

Fears of a deep global recession with damaging consequences are misplaced, according to ANZ’s chief economist.

While a mild recession in some of the world’s key markets seem inevitable, Richard Yetsenga told the ANZ Finance & Treasury Forum in Singapore, such a rest could bring about some “welcome change" – even if it is disruptive for markets.

“This recession will still ultimately be costly for some firms and individuals,” he said. “But rather than being really seriously damaging, I think it’s more like to be a pause that actually refreshes.

“A mild recession will bring some respite to consumers who are facing these really challenging cost-of-living issues.”

Businesses could also see a return of the supply security missing since the pandemic began, Yetsenga said – as well as the end of the ongoing talent war.

“I think [a mild recession] will actually bring some welcome change,” he said.

Yetsenga said recessions are likely in Europe, the United Kingdom and the US, which hastechnically had a recession already”, he said.

“[But] we're all worried about something much, much worse than a garden-variety recession,” he said. “I don't think that's what we're going to see. I think those fears are misplaced.”

The ANZ Finance & Treasury Forum returned in 2022. Held in Singapore on October 20, the forum brought together some of the region’s most compelling thought leaders to discuss how organisations are making the future count together on the path to net-zero carbon.

As the threat to natural capital and biodiversity becomes ever clearer in a post-pandemic world, the forum explored key topics of global importance across geopolitics, sustainability, and the technology that will help bring your business into the future.

ANZ Institutional Insights will provide coverage and insights into the key themes from the forum in the coming weeks.


Yetsenga acknowledged inflation as the major issue ahead for the economy, but in his optimism, questioned its major driver.

“Much of what you read suggests, assumes, presupposes, claims, and sometimes just plain makes up, that the inflation challenge is primarily due to supply side problems,” he said.

“The implication of that being, ‘look, it's not really anybody's fault, there's not much we can do about it, and the supply-side problems will resolve themselves in time, so there's really no need to panic’.”

For Yetsenga, this thinking doesn’t mesh with data showing global shipping rates are falling, commodity prices declining, and core inflation, rather than headline inflation, driving most of the rise.

“Primarily, I think the world has an excess demand problem and not an insufficient supply problem,” he said.

The ANZ Finance & Treasury forum returned to an in-person event this year for the first time since 2019, attracting 200 guests.  

The forum brought together some of the region’s most compelling thought leaders to discuss how organisations are making the future count together on the path to net-zero carbon.

AFTF 2022: doom & gloom misplaced
Staff Writer
ANZ Insights


Sign up
Icon of ANZ logo coming out of an envelope

Receive insights direct to your inbox


Related articles

This publication is published by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522 (“ANZBGL”) in Australia. This publication is intended as thought-leadership material. It is not published with the intention of providing any direct or indirect recommendations relating to any financial product, asset class or trading strategy. The information in this publication is not intended to influence any person to make a decision in relation to a financial product or class of financial products. It is general in nature and does not take account of the circumstances of any individual or class of individuals. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation or offer by ANZBGL or its branches or subsidiaries (collectively “ANZ”) to you to acquire a product or service, or an offer by ANZ to provide you with other products or services. All information contained in this publication is based on information available at the time of publication. While this publication has been prepared in good faith, no representation, warranty, assurance or undertaking is or will be made, and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by ANZ in relation to the accuracy or completeness of this publication or the use of information contained in this publication. ANZ does not provide any financial, investment, legal or taxation advice in connection with this publication.