Presentation by Saul Eslake to franchisor customers of ANZ Corporate Banking in Sydney on 15 December 2005, looking at the recent slowdown in consumer spending - which has been more pronounced in New South Wales than elsewhere in Australia - and prospects for 2006.
A set of charts prepared for the November quarterly meeting of ANZ's Group Assets and Liabilities Committee, which oversights the management of ANZ's balance sheet.
This November 2005 report by Tony Pearson, Amy Auster, Julie Toth and Riki Polygenis considers the possible ramifications for the Australian economy of a bird flu pandemic
A presentation by Saul Eslake to a delegation of visiting Chinese officials hosted by Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Melbourne on 16 November 2005.
Presentation by Saul Eslake to a conference on the Howard Government's proposed workplace relations reforms hosted by the Australian Financial Review in Melbourne on 25th October 2005, looking at what light the economic data sheds on the cases for and against the Government's proposed reforms.
A presentation by Saul Eslake to a luncheon hosted by the Queensland Division of the Urban Development Institute of Australia in Brisbane on 7 October.
A note prepared by Saul Eslake for ANZ's Emerging Credit Issues Committee examining the state of the world, Australian and New Zealand business cycles as of early October 2005.
A lecture given by Saul Eslake to the Royal Society of Tasmania, at the University of Tasmania, on 6 September 2005, in which he looks at three aspects of contemporary Australian society - the income tax system, our national obsession with sport, and our response to international terrorism and corporate misbehaviour - and argues that each tells us something about our national identity and detracts from our economic performance.
A set of charts prepared by Saul Eslake for the (now) quarterly meeting of ANZ's Group Asset and Liability Committee, which oversights the management of ANZ's balance sheet.
A presentation by Saul Eslake at AgQuip in Gunnedah, in northern New South Wales, on 22 August 2005, which looks at the causes and effects of high oil prices, the implications for commodity markets of rapid growth and industrialization in China, and the outlook for the Australian economy, interest rates and the A$.
A presentation given by Saul Eslake to a seminar for Northern Territory public servants hosted by the Northern Territory Treasury Corporation in Darwin on 18 August 2005, covering the global and Australian economies and also briefly the Northern Territory.
A presentation given by Saul Eslake to clients of First Samuel Ltd, a Melbourne fund manager, on 16 August 2005, which looks at the impact of rising oil prices on the world and Australian economies
A talk given by Saul Eslake to the inaugural Melbourne meeting of the Australia-Japan Economic Roundtable on 9 August 2005, in which he looks at China's rapid growth and industrialistion, and its implications for the Australian economy and the Australian dollar
A presentation on the outlook of the Australian economy and labour market by Katie Dean to the launch of the annual Hays Salary Survey in Sydney and Melbourne in June 2005.
A collection of charts focused on the outlook for Asia and the global economy prepared by Economics@ANZ for the information and use of senior executives and management of the ANZ Bank.
This note looks at the recent performance and prospects for Australia's current account deficit. It concludes we will need to learn to live with a high current account deficit for the next few years.
A collection of charts on the global, Australian and New Zealand economies prepared by Economics@ANZ for the information and use of senior executives and management of the ANZ Bank
Slides used by Saul Eslake in post-Budget presentations to ANZ Business, Corporate, Institutional and Private Bank customers in Hobart, Sydney and Adelaide during May 2005
A collection of charts on the Australian and New Zealand economies and financial markets compiled by Saul Eslake for a two-week visit to clients of ANZ's New York office in late April and early May 2005
A presentation by Saul Eslake to the Annual Conference of the Tasmanian Division of the Australian College of Hospital Administrators in Launceston on 14 April 2005. It draws heavily on the Productivity Commission Report released earlier that week.
A collection of charts on the global, Australian and New Zealand economies prepared by Economics@ANZ for the information and use of senior executives and management of the ANZ Bank.
A selection of charts on the global, Asian and Australian economies and financial markets, from which Saul Eslake made a series of presentations to ANZ customers and clients, and to the Australian-Singapore and Australian-Thai Chambers of Commerce, in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), Singapore and Bangkok (Thailand) during the week of 4th - 8th April 2005.
This presentation was delivered by Katie Dean to the Australia Malaysia Free Trade Agreement Conference in Melbourne in March. It examines the macroeconomic environment for investment in Australia and considers the potential impact to investment in Australia from a Malaysia-Australia Free Trade Agreement
This is a collection of charts on the Australian economic outlook delivered to ANZ corporate clients in Sydney by Paul Braddick and Katie Dean in early March.
In this note prepared for a regular meeting of ANZ's Emerging Credit Issues Committee, ANZ Chief Economist Saul Eslake argues that the Australian economy has reached the point in the business cycle where, at every similar juncture since the end of World War II, policy mistakes have been made which have inevitably led to recession. There are valid reasons for saying this time it will be different, and that is what Saul Eslake is saying, but that is a very dangerous assertion for an economic forecaster to make.
In this address to a conference of the Adjudication Branch of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission on 3 February 2005, Saul Eslake looks at the role of competition in promoting increases in productivity and economic growth.
This article, written by Saul Eslake for the quarterly newsletter of HLB Mann Judd, an Australian accounting firm and ANZ customer, discusses the outlook for the global and Australian economies in 2005.
In this note Melanie Hay examines the impact of higher oil prices on the Australian Economy. Australia is less vulnerable to higher oil prices than some other developed countries as domestic production meets most of its needs.
Housing Markets have undoubtedly cooled since late 2003. However, the alarmist talk of a pending collapse in house prices and activity is, in our view, unwarranted as broad housing market and economic fundamentals remain very supportive. Furthermore, history shows us that falls in aggregate house prices are extremely rare. Indeed the usual preconditions for a price correction are noticeably absent.
The Australian government monthly financial statement released late last month revealed an extremely healthy budget position heading into an election. In this note Melanie Hay examines possible budget outcomes and concludes that the liklihood of higher than projected budget surpluses raises the prospect of a further boost to economic growth via pre-election giveaways, something which could be of concern to the Reserve Bank.
This is a collection of charts on the economic outlook used by Melanie Hay and Katie Dean in presentations to the Australian Industry Group in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide in June 2004.
An article which was published by the Australian Financial Review on 9 December 2003 as part of a series marking the 20th anniversary of the floating of the Australian dollar.
An article written for the quarterly client newsletter of Meyrick Webster MGI, a Melbourne accounting firm (and ANZ customer), looking at the major influences on the outlook for the Australian economy in 2004.
In this presentation to the Victorian Commercial Teachers Association, Senior Economist Melanie Hay explores the details of the paper she first wrote in May on 'A stronger A$ - the winners and losers.
An essay commissioned by the opinion-page editors of the Australian Financial Review as part of their 'C21 Australia' series, published on Saturday 8 November 2003.
A quarterly article written for the client newsletter of MGI Meyrick Webster, a Melbourne accounting firm (and ANZ client). This article discusses ANZ's outlook for the Australian economy for the 2003-04 financial year.
A talk to the 2003 Annual Conference of School Bursars and Administrators on 15 September 2003, in which Saul Eslake looks at the performance of the Australian economy over the past decade, the contribution which education has made to it, and the contribution which education could and should make to Australia's economic performance over the next two decades.
Saul Eslake's answer, in a presentation to the Queensland Division of the Urban Development Institute of Australia on 4 September, is 'no' up to this point - the rise in Australian residential property prices over the past five years is largely 'justified' by fundamental factors of demand and supply. From here onwards, property prices should ideally begin to level out (allowing for some 'catch-up' in smaller capitals and provincial cities). But there is a growing risk that investors could drive property prices higher than 'justified' by these fundamentals, leading to a more destabilizing correction with adverse implications for the economy.
In this presentation to the Australian Cotton Shippers Association conference on 4 September 2003, Saul Eslake discusses the outlook for the global economy and Australia's major cotton export markets, some looming important developments in trade policy affecting cotton exporters, and the exchange rate outlook.
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